There is less than a month left until Christmas, and after this explosive Black Friday, a very positive season is expected.

Unlike last Christmas, when the vaccination process had only just begun and the restrictions were still in force, the forecasts are positive for 2021.

Christmas Forecasts

Most experts predict a record in Christmas sales, driven by the strength that Black Friday has had this year.

In the case of Spain, a Study by Deloitte shows the optimism of consumers. Nearly 62% of respondents will spend more this year. It is estimated that spending will increase by 14% compared to 2019, with an average expenditure per household of € 631.

In the US alone, growth of between 8.5% -10.5% is expected in the last quarter of the year, reaching more than 840 billion dollars.

An increase in demand caused by economic growth and the end of restrictions will give the retail sector a break. However, the shadow of problems in supply chains may become their worst nightmare if costs and inflation rise.

That is why the vast majority of retailers are investing large sums, doing their best to guarantee the supply of stock to offer the best customer experience this Christmas.

E-commerce with upward forecasts for this Christmas

According to eMarketer (Criteo) online sales had a growth of 28% in 2020, while in the retail sector it accounted for 19% of its total sales.

According to the National Retail Federation, online sales, which already had a strong boost last year, are expected to grow between 11%-15% in the U.S. alone.

The new variants of COVID and the possible increase in infections in the coming weeks and months may once again bring movement restrictions that may increase the predictions of online sales.

Shops as a traditional shopping experience

Unlike last Christmas, which we spent in full lockdown and with hardly any contact between loved ones, shops will play a fundamental role this year. With their decoration and visual merchandising strategy, they must offer the most Christmassy and traditional shopping experience that consumers expect to see. (add nostalgic point).

Shop windows, lighting and decoration will play an important role in attracting more traffic to shops and making themselves known to new customers.

Early shopping

Doubts and uncertainty about problems in supply chains and consequent inflation have caused a lot of consumers to do their Christmas shopping early, with many having taken advantage of the recent Black Friday.

In the case of Spain, sales will continue to be mainly in the month of December, although this Black Friday between 15-20% of consumers will have already bought Christmas gifts.

Interestingly, nearly 20% of respondents say they will wait for the January sales to do their shopping. This could be affected by uncertainty in the supply chain.

Discovery of new brands

Faced with last-minute uncertainty, the early arrival of the Christmas shopping period has made the purchase decision time longer, increasing the possibility of finding new brands through all sales channels (offline and online).

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